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Although that could change depending on how the economy evolves, my views on “when” do not differ appreciably from the most recent primary dealer and buy-side surveys undertaken by the New York Fed prior to the October FOMC meeting
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Is Nokia a 5G trendy boutique to Buy in 2021? BMO Capital Markets cut tech to "market weight" for 2021 but urged investors to maintain positions rather than sell
[url=http://www.justaaa.com/forum.php?do=Topic&fid=3&title=&content=Is+Nokia+a+5G+trendy+boutique+to+Buy+in+2021%3F+BMO+Capital+Markets+cut+tech+to+"market+weight"+for+2021+but+urged+investors+to+maintain+positions+rather+than+sell.+Unfortunately%2C+the+stock+recovered+to+1.7+yesterday+but+it+hasn't+trigger+the+cut+loss+level+yet+and+shortly+today%2C+it+finally+triggered+below+the+1.64+level+and+reached+a+low+of+1.60+earlier+just+now.+In+other+words%2C+investors+are+pricing+stocks+on+the+assumption+that+the+US+economy+will+return+to+growth%2C+while+interest+rates+stay+low.+Thus%2C+if+the+economy+improves%2C+interest+rates+will+rise%2C+with+or+without+the+Fed+buying+bonds+and+if+the+economy+falters%2C+interest+rates+will+stay+low%2C+with+our+without+the+Fed+buying+bonds.+The+Fed’s+optimistic+take+on+the+economy+(that+it+was+on+the+mend)+and+Bernanke’s+statement+that+the+Fed+could+start+winding+down+its+bond+buying+program+(and+by+extension%2C+its+policy+of+keeping+interest+rates+low)+was+not+viewed+as+good+news+by+the+market.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0AHolding+all+else+constant%2C+then%2C+it+seems+obvious+that+the+Fed+with+its+bond+buying+program+can+change+the+dynamics+of+the+market%2C+increasing+bond+prices+and+lowering+long+term+rates.+This+may+seem+like+heresy+in+a+market+that+views+the+Fed+both+as+the+arbiter+of+interest+rates+and+the+protector+of+the+bull+market%2C+but+if+long+term+interest+rates+start+rising%2C+I+don’t+think+that+the+Fed+can+do+much+to+stop+them.+While+each+assumption+can+be+defended+separately%2C+I+don’t+see+how+they+can+co-exist%2C+no+matter+what+the+Fed+or+any+other+entity+may+tell+us.+Does+the+Fed+matter%3F+The+second+is+that+there+are+far+more+scenarios+which+are+negative+for+bonds+than+positive%2C+a+direct+result+of+interest+rates+being+at+historic+lows+and+the+Fed+running+low+on+ammunition.+For+instance%2C+the+soft+landing+scenario%2C+favored+by+many+economists%2Finvestors+today%2C+sees+moderate+growth+with+low+inflation%2C+one+that+is+negative+for+bonds+(because+interest+rates+will+start+creeping+back+towards+the+fundamental+growth+rate)+and+mildly+positive+for+stocks.+One+way+to+determine+whether+a+contrarian+indicator+works+well+at+extremes+is+to+look+at+the+correlations+of+the+signals+to+the+market.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0ARelated+articles:+%0D%0Ahttp:%2F%2Fnofilter.agr.ng%2Fif-you-are-like-me%2F+%0D%0Ahttp:%2F%2Ffollowforfollow.agr.ng%2F2021%2F03%2F02%2Ftrendy-promotional-items%2F+%0D%0Ahttp:%2F%2Flikeforlike.agr.ng%2F2021%2F03%2F02%2Fhow-to-select-the-right-gift-card%2F&btn=Ask+Question#say]Humble Student Of The Markets: March 2021[/url]
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